'After 52 years it is time for the United States to fully recognize Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights, which is of critical strategic and security importance to the state of Israel and Regional Stability'. @realDonaldTrump (Twitter)
Purim shpiel? Surprise?
The 'declaration' was launched by the American president while secretary of state Pompeo was visiting Jerusalem, meeting prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. An official declaration to officially assess the position of the American authorities might be signed the next week, during Netanyahu's visit to Washington DC. Besides tacitly agreeing the display of the big posters with Bibi and Trump displayed all over Israel, the support for the official recognition of Golan Heights was considered another hand given to Netanyahu in the battle to win the coming elections, that he is desperately trying to win again, despite the many corruption files he is the main (bad) character.
Surprise?
Following Trump's Twitter declaration, there were sources both in Jerusalem and Washington that displayed in the media their surprise about the announcement. Maybe - with a probability of 3% - the very moment when such a declaration would be made was not shared between partners, but the recognition of Israel's authority over Golan Heights is for at least 2 years on the political agenda in Capitol Hill and not only. Last December, for instance, two senators Ted Cruz and Tom Cotton submitted a Senate resolution in this respect. The lobby and outlines of the strategic interest were publicly and clearly stated more than once.
Shortly, surprise is the last word to use for describing the post-declaration reactions.
The History
The Golan Heights ('Ramat HaGolan', in Hebrew) were captured from Syria after the 1967 Six Days War. Syrians tried to take it back in 1973 but failed. In 1981, the Israeli law was extended to the territory. Since Reagan administration, US and the international community considers it 'Syrian territory under Israeli occupation'.
Efforts for an international mediation failed several times, and involved a lot of regional and international mediators, including Turkey in 2008. In 2010, Bashar al-Assad requested through a letter to the then pres. Obama to help set up new peace talks with Israel on this issue, but after that the war started in 2011 and the momentum was lost.
Although moderately compared to other symbolic places in the region - such as Jerusalem - the Golan was assigned a political symbolism on both sides of the border. Under Hafez al Assad, the father of the current Syrian president, during whose reign political activities were strictly prohibited, big rallies in favor of Golan were organised and school children sung chants for Golan. On the other side of the border, in Israel in the 1990s, the bumper stickers with 'The Nation with the Golan', were very popular.
Currently, there are a couple of druze villages, with a population of 26,000 people - out of which only few of them applied for Israeli citizenship, most of them being considered 'Syrians abroad' - and several settlements built since the 1970s. Israeli authorities invested a lot in the area, with popular wineries being created there and the popular ski resort - the only in Israel - on Mt. Hermon.
The Strategic importance
Golan is a buffer zone overlooking Syria, Jordan and Lebanon. During the last years of war in Syria, shells were often shot in the direction of Golan, but also the Syrian rebels brought some of their people in Israel for medical care. Without Golan, the industrial's heartland of Israel - Haifa, for instance - is overexposed to military threats. For instance, between 1948-1967 when the Golan was under Syrian authority, Syrians shot offen in the direction of Hula Valley, threatening permanently the kibbutzim in the area.
Besides the obvious military importance, the role of resources is very important in order to understand the overall assessment of the Golan Heights.
In 1995, Yitzhak Rabin said that: 'the greatest danger Israel has to face in the negotiations with Syria is the possibility of losing control over Golan Heights water resources'. In this region, water is gold and Syrians tried already in 1964 to divert the water course. Currently, Golan is one of the three sources of Israel's fresh water. With 200 springs and sources of streams, it offers direct access to two major water systems: the draining barage of the Jordan River and the Lake Tiberias and Yarmuk River to the South. The Military Order 120 gives to the state exclusive access to the Golan's water resources. Accordingly, owning the land does not entail ownership over the water on or under it.
Apparently, there might be other resources on Golan too, and drilling in order to explore the potential for oil was done several times in the last years.
Otherwise, the area is calm, without any potential of conflict and Trump's declaration only catches more attention for a situation that was more or less tacitly accepted as such for years.
Qui Prodest?
Besides the obvious support on behalf of Netanyahu, why Trump made this declaration now? What are the consequences internationally?
The Americans are pulling their troops from Syria in the next weeks and it is unclear what will happen in Syria. Will it stay united or will it be split into smaller territories? Will it be any partition of Syria? Russia which is actively involved in the region wants a united one and the lack of commitment on the American side only helps Russia (again).
On the side of Assad, he will not have any complex now to mobilize even more help from Iran that would likely love to get one more reason to get involved.
As for a possible peace between Syria and Israel...is now less likely than ever, so forget about this...
The main problem - not only in this case - is what will it happen when after Trump's mandate will finish, the new administration will reverse completely - most likely - the decisions took during those times. What are the administrative and strategic and political consequences of this merry-go-round?
The boat of fools is in the open.
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