As three elections and a corruption trial, plus a pandemic that put many hard working Israelis on survival mode was not enough, the announced intention of Benjamin Netanyahu to annex all settlements in Jordan Valley from 1st of July announces a terrible storm in the region. Is it just an apocalyptic - for the taste of the dear Rapture lovers among the Christian Evangelist Trump voters - fake journalistic lead? After all, following the annexation of Golan Heights over one year ago, nothing significantly bad happened, besides naming a settlement after the Twitter-lover American president...
When one is trying to understand the Middle East, the best is to give up using comparisons. Every single historical moment has its own specificities with a low rate of reproduction in the near future. I know it´s confusing but there is no way to change the situation.
Some intelligent people dare to compare though the risks presented by the annexation of Jordan Valley with the 1982 disaster of Lebanon. Gd forbid, it can be even worse, as the forces at work nowadays in the region are stronger and with a high level of security risk.
In the case of Golan Heights as for the settlements in the Jordan Valley, the Israeli authority is operating on the ground for a long time. However, Israel does not have a peace treaty with Syria therefore there is no risk of kindling the fire of a regional conflict following the legal annexation.
On the other side, Israel do have a treaty with the Kingdom of Jordan and any unilateral annexation will not only affect the bilateral relations between the two countries, but it will seriously shake the stability in the Kingdom as well. King Abdullah of Jordan, on whose territory at least 1.5 million Palestinians are living, is trying hard to keep the Kingdom free of terrorist inferrences, including those fuelled generously by Iran. When the partner Israel, with whom it collaborates regularly for the sake of regional security, is betraying, the King will need to loose those ties in order to answer internal pressure and the risks of radicalisation of local Islamist movements. In a recent - not accidental - interview with the German weekly Der Spiegel the King - whose efforts are supported morally and financially by Berlin - warned that the expected annexation will bring more ´chaos and extremism in the region´. Germany, who starting with the 1st of July will lead both the EU Presidency and the UN Security Council, already dispatched its top diplomat to Jerusalem in order to warn Bibi that EU will not tolerate such an unilateral move. Most likely, Israel will pay the price by not receiving for a while important European monies for research projects.
As for the American establishment, there are more and more voices against the project, including Jared Kushner, for pure political calculations - reading 30 books or so about the Middle East was not enough. A success of the Democratic candidate
Besides Bibi himself - which probably is doing the move for just another short-term calculation - it is hard to estimate who actually really supports this annexation. The representatives of the settlers themselves are not happy with the outcome as they consider that the Trump plan is creating dangerous security risks, because it operates through areas with a high concentration of Palestinian population. Many of those Palestinians are regularly working together with Jewish settlers but a de jure annexation will discourage some local initiatives.
The Palestinians threated to cut the security collaboration with Israelis and although on the ground the dialogue will not be expected to be cut completely, the very practical Mahmoud Abbas/Abu Mazen himself will be under pressure from Hamas to take a more radical stance. Exactly what the sponsors of Hamas (guess who) are waiting for.
This, in a time when Israel enjoyed a relatively terror-free period of time.
Oh, there may be some winners though. The terror fuelled by Daesh on one side, and Iranian mullahs, on the other side, can use the opportunity to take a harder stance against Israel. Bibi seems to use the warning of the ´Iranian threat´ when it suits his small political plans instead of considering a larger vision going beyond the current permanent tensions. Some people deserve each other, unfortunatelly...
On short term, maybe Saudi Arabia will win the short-term regional game by getting from Jordan the guardianship of the Temple Mount, but will it really be worth the price? For the region, not for Bibi himself...
There is still a long time until the 1st of July and Bibi, as usual, can change his mind, for pure political calculations only, unfortunatelly. There is no clear, step-by-step plan, not sure what will happen with the Palestinians living there and how the security will be guaranteed, including in relationship with the foreseeable tensions on all fronts - with Jordan, Hamas etc. The last talk was that the annexation will in fact cover Gush Etzion, Ariel and Ma´ale Adumim. Until the end of the month he can change the discourse hundred of times without doing anything. Hopefully. Otherwise in this crazy year, July will be the next month to remember, for all the wrong reasons.
No comments:
Post a Comment