Sledgehammer

 

Some ideas need time and right circumstances to happen. Sometimes it happens independently of individual people as it took enough time for the idea to grow and for the diplomatic discussions to advance to make it happens.

The Abraham Accords, definitely, haven´t start with Pres. Trump administration. In order to achieve such a historical peace between the State of Israel and some Arab/Muslim countries, it took time to create the momentum. Discussions and negotiations, steps forward and meetings behind the close doors were ongoing long before Covid. For instance, at least 10 years ago, in Dubai there were Bar Mitzva celebrations organised and a small Jewish - mostly American - community was discretely burgeoning. 

Sledgehammer. How Breaking with the Past Brought Peace to the Middle East by former US Ambassador to Israel David Friedman accounts about the final steps of the process, when he, together with Jared Kuchner and Jason Greenblatt sealed off the signing of the Accords. It is also the testimony of the ambiance in the Middle East and Israel during Trump administration.

Friedman used to be involved in various legal cases for the Trump family, a Cohen, with strong connections with Israel. In general, for important embassy positions, US administration - and not only -usually nominates people close to the winner at the White House therefore Friedman´s presence was normal in the logic of things of American bureaucracy. Definitely, an ambassador is not alone and his everyday activity was facing sometimes opposition on behalf of the State Department diplomats. However, no matter what, some of the decisions took during Trump administration, often leaked to the press in advance for various non-diplomatic reasons, were still in force nowadays. The embassy remains in Jerusalem and there is no rebuke of the Golan Heights administration by Israel. 

A businessman rarely have time for the byzantine intricacies of diplomacy, but this is what is needed in times of crisis to take a decision and move things forward. I am not sure that there would have been any other administration opposed to the courageous steps took by the Abraham Accords - the current Biden administration, for instance, supports the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Israel - but what is important is the alignment of political will and circumstances that made it happen. 

As the ongoing events in the region already show, we are far from getting the real clarity in this respect, but good things take time to happen.

A Moving Target

 

The tragic events from 7/10 in Israel changed definitely a lot of details from the overall Middle East equation. Alliances, geopolitical positioning, Western perceptions as well. One thing though remained the same: the constant Iranian threat against Israel, done through supporting a war of proxies, even with the price of destabilizing the countries were those proxies are located - for instance, Lebanon, who has for years enough of the mullah´s regime intrusion in their everyday life and politics.

Target Tehran by Yonah Jeremy Bob and Ilan Evyatar is an informative approach on the Iranian-Israel cyberwarfare and sabotage stories - if you already read Ronen Bergman you may not discover too many new information - but also delves deep into the behind the scenes diplomatic efforts to achieve the Abraham Accords (more about this in an upcoming review featuring the political memoir of former US Ambassador in Israel David Friedman). 

As both authors are journalists, they are extensively using sources, especially part of the various establishments - particularly Israel and US - which give more credibility to the account. I´ve found very interesting the mentions about how smartly Israel used the soft diplomacy - vaccines´ during Covid, among others - in order to expand cooperation with former ´enemies´. I am looking forward one day to read about a Middle East free of poisonous intrusions, where former enemies are fighting hard to achieve common economic goals and exchange scientific experiments.  

Understanding the Head of the Mossad

The Middle East realities are, fortunately, more complex than we may read and/or heard about in the media. The Abraham Accords launched last year did not occur overnight, but are the result of long years, if not decades, of rapprochement at different levels between representatives of Israel and various Arab countries. Most, if not all, of those contacts were set through the Institute for Intelligence and Special Operations, the famous - for all its goods and bads - Mossad. 

Reading a book authored by a head of the Mossad may project a lot of expectations. One may think that once one start reading such a book, all the questions and curiosities about the recent history are suddenly answered. Such high expectations may apply to any book written by insiders of the secret world.

In reality thus, the very nature of the intelligence work does not allow too much disclosure. Definitely, there are much praised book offering insights to the general public, but whenm someone as Shabtai Shavit, director of the Mossad between 1989 and 1996, writes a political memoir, most likely the result will be a dairy-like with many blank spaces. Shavit has over 50 years of experience in international security and counterterrorism operations, with three decades of work in the Mossad. His military service was in the elite unit of Sayeret Matkal, where Yonathan Netanyahu and his prime minister brother, Bibi, as well as Ehud Barak, Israel´s 10th prime minister, performed their military duties. He was chosed by Yitzhak Shamir to replace Nahum Admoni, leading Israeli´s foreign intelligence service through very troubled international and internal waters. He was also the first director that do not belong to the generation that led the War of Independence which meant sometimes a different view on political evolutions and the right way to react to changes.

During his long years of service, Shabtai Shavit witnessed tremendous international events that challenged for ever the intelligence environment: the end of the Soviet Union and the reunification of Germany, the first Gulf War, the conclusion of the peace agreement with Jordan or the assassination of Yitzak Rabin. Those changes required a constant adaptation in terms of human resources, budgets and intelligence plans. As Shavit himself acknowledges, the political strategy may create ´strange bedfellows´ and this is available particularly after the end of the Cold War. 

Shavit writes in a very systematic, bullet-points way, with the coldness and verbal scarcity of someone used to read, accumulate and categorize tons of important information every day. As a ground operative himself, he appreciates and even praises the value of human intelligence as one of the most valuable assets. 

The book is organised in various chapters, with details about various operations and major international or regional events from the point of view of the information and interests of Israel´s intelligence community, such as the intelligence failures of the Yom Kippur war, the First Gulf War, the Iranian file, the Olso Agreements, the second Lebanon War. The specific details of those operations, although sometimes too general, are important for anyone interested in understanding the Middle East as it is, not as some may want to be. 

The points of view are shared from the point of view of the intelligence professional and this is very important to keep this in mind while reading the book. I´ve found the observations related to the freedom of speech too general and unfair even unrealistic for the journalists, but in the end, I understood that this is the way in which people on the other side of the institutional wall see the things. Expecting the journalists to counter and eventually accept what not to disclose to the public, for high state reasons, it´s widely unrealistic and problematic for the journalist whose mission is a bit different, if not completely contradictory to such principles.

Much more interesting and source of long-term food for thought are the observations regarding the possibility of a new Sykes-Picot agreement in the Middle East. How he sees the new power chess game - a well-inspired cover, by the way - is unexpected, for at least one reason: the idea of a ´Sunnistan´, which may border Kurdistan (a new state as well, but this one I´ve heard more than once before) in the North, Iraq in the East, Jordan in the South and Syria in the West. This state may be a solution offered to Sunni populations in the Middle East. I may need a bit of time to digest further this information...

As expected, there are some thoughts about the Palestinian case as well, with an interesting insights about the ´right of return´, a claim which may made any further negotiation with the Israeli impossible. (More about this in a next review of a book dedicated to the issue by Einat Wilf). How everything started and what are the roots of the common conflict is also explained, with candid details from the very beginning of the state of Israel. 

There are also some thoughts about Iran, where the author himself travelled during the Shah years, and it portrays realistically the dilemma of what exactly to expect from a strong country, with a messianic leadership, whose religious leader has the right to use the red button (or whatever colour the nuclear launcher does have in Tehran). How to operate with such an actor - which is not rational, in the way of the actors we were used to operate during the Cold War.

Admirably, the books ends with a collection of eulogies Shavit made for colleagues and other people involved in the intelligence work. It´s a moving tribute which recognize how important every single person working in this field is. 

I have not been impressed by the style - nonfiction can be well, beautifully written as well - but this is not the point of the book. The other details related to the knowledge shared, based by the author´s experiences, were well convened and therefore, makes the book an useful addition to the already vast bibliography of books dedicated to the Middle East.

Rating: 4 stars

Disclaimer: Book offered by the publisher in exchange for an honest review

Normalization

It´s almost a month since the Abraham Accords were signed in the US, allowing the normalization of relations between UAE and Bahrain, on one side, and the State of Israel, on the other side, and so many things are in the making. At least, this may be the only best news in this strange year and, seriously, what a great normal news it is. 

On one hand, the Accords are the recognition of a reality in the making long before the Trump administration, who was offered, though, an elegant opportunity to show off. The trust of intelligences cannot be build in four years only, and the fact that for over five years discrete bar/bat mitzvah were celebrated in a private location in Dubai, tells a lot about how far everything started. 

On the other hand, it´s clear for everyone that four decades of hate and distasteful brainwashing and propaganda haven´t helped the so-called ´Palestinian´ cause. And it will never help. By creating communication chains and personal contacts there will be more likely a chance to have an answer to a painful situation. But well, do you know under what conditions the Palestinians in Lebanon are living - no citizenship, no rights...Or in other countries from the region that keep to condemn Israel when they are going through crisis of legitimacy, even no one serious in his/her mind do really believe this circus. Hopefully voices like that of Faeze Hashemi (hopefully she is wiser than her late father) who recently recommended a recognition towards Israel as a way to defend the Palestinians are not singular, although one may only dream and dream until things will really be able to move in a different direction between Jerusalem and Tehran. 

In the last weeks, there were a couple of moves of soft power diplomacy that took place either in the UAE or Israel, not all of them equal in weight, but nothwistanding news-worthy given the many decades of dissent and the religious propaganda in the Gulf: an Arab-Israeli soccer player who plays for the Israeli national team, Diaa Saba,  signed with Dubai Al-Nasr; there were some photo joint photoshooting for undergarments with the participation of Israeli and Dubai-based models, musical collaborations between artists from the two countries (Waleed al-Jasim and Elkana Marziano, de gustibus but still something). The Harvard graduate Nuseir Yassin, known as Nas Daily, started a tour in the region which angered the BDS movement supporters - because they will feel that soon they are becoming completely redundant...

The most important of all these, though, is the meeting hosted by the German Minister of Foreign Affairs, between the top diplomats from Israel and UAE, Gabi Askenazi and Abdullah bin Zayed. The two officials who inaugurated the first ever meeting at this level in the history of the region, visited the Memorial of the Murdered Jews, near the iconic Brandenburg Gate. 

There is such a huge window of opportunities right now in the region which is stronger than a political representative or another. It has to do with the everyday life of humans who deserve better and the hopes of a generation that hate should be left way behind in the history books.